Escaping the Predictability Trap

• definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results, and yet we engage in an unconscious fiction of predictability every day
• We work in an uncertain world, and our main goal in pursuing agility is to confront the unknown
• Pursuing predictability causes us to lay a veneer of fiction over the real world, making it conform to a plan of what we would like to believe is true rather than what really is
• Humans are wired to avoid uncertainty: organizations, and people, hate uncertainty, predictability is comforting, even when it is an illusion
• Demanding predictability creates a set of predictable dysfunctions:
• Being forced to produce predictability warps reality and causes people to spend time and energy creating a façade that meets expectations
• Common behaviors:
  • Predictable plans
    • Comparing actuals to plans
      • deeply ingrained in many organizations who somehow think that the future can be predicted with accuracy, any deviation from a plan is evidence of poor performance, and questioning a plan is viewed as “being negative”
      • False certainty does us no good
    • prevents us from making good choices and from achieving greater goals
      • punishing people because they didn’t guess correctly is a waste of time and discourages important learning
    • Instead of demanding predictable plans, focus on articulating clear goals, clearly framing experiments, how you will evaluate them, and be open to learning new things
  • Predictable productivity
    • Delivering value is what is important, not how many “units of work”
      • Managers love focusing on productivity and “efficiency” but frequently fail to consider the value that is being delivered
    • Instead, focus your efforts on removing waste and impediments, and clearly articulating goals
      • When walking a rough and uncertain path, it’s not how fast you go that matters, but whether you reach your destination
    • To go faster, place smaller bets, run shorter experiments, and evaluate where you are more frequently; you’ll save time not having to backtrack later
  • Predictable careers
    • Each of us likes to believe that we are on the path to success
    • The notion of a “career” is a story we tell ourselves about how what we are doing now is leading to something better
    • we are not very good at anticipating the future, and we really have no idea of the kinds of opportunities we may encounter along the way
    • It may seem a bit scary that we really don’t know where we are headed, and that luck plays a large part in what we end up doing
    • The reality is that we cannot really imagine what jobs will exist in ten years, or even five, nor can we conceive that many of today’s jobs will no longer exist
    • how do we prepare ourselves for what lies ahead?
      • By cultivating flexibility, trying new things, solving hard problems, and acquiring whatever skills we need to do so
    • adaptability and the ability to learn quickly are the keys to success, not steadily marching to the beat of someone else’s drum
    • Just as with Scrum, we succeed personally by trying new approaches and evaluating the results, in measured experiments
  • Predictable agile transformation
    • “Transformation” is often associated with “magical thinking”: organizations seem to believe that they can predictively plan how they are going to “become agile”
    • This is usually based on the misconception that agile is a process, or is rather like a tool, that can be “installed” or “rolled out” to an organization
    • Agility, or, adaptability, is a cultural quality, a way of thinking and acting that deeply changes the way that people see and act in the world, not a specific set of practices or behaviors that can be adopted
    • way of thinking and acting that involves continually seeking better results and better outcomes
    • We cannot plan how this is going to proceed, and as different teams have different challenges, their path toward agility will be different
    • There is no “magical” set of practices, roles, or processes that makes this easier